Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game

I'm a professional Data Scientist with almost a decade of experience at this point and throughout my whole career I've had a deep sense of unease with expert knowledge, prediction, and the successes and failures of models both machine learning and statistical.I ran across NNT in various places for his radical, but rigorous take downs of many statistical concepts that I had developed independently. I think I came into the profession having high esteem of correlation, then had even less of it excepting in linear domains, and then an NNT video destroyed the rest as he pointed out some basics (the majority of interesting real world data sets aren't linear). From there I devoured many of his white papers, his videos, and great twitter feed.So this year I decided to buy this series and get even further into his work. As I'm finishing up Skin in the Game right now (with the technical companion on the way) I can say that this series is fantastic for the practitioner or layman alike.These books will describe many of the failures of statistics, modeling, prediction, and why they occur in a readable manner for any college (or perhaps well read layman) to digest even if one doesn't understand the mathematics. You'll have less respect for experts (but also less respect for contrarians who disregard the experts) and a more thorough understanding of the many dimensions these failures reverberate through in medicine, philosophy, social sciences, finance, economics, politics and more. I myself will probably have to read it again.As with all great thinkers, I don't know if I agree with 100% of NNT's opinions in this book, but like those great thinkers, his thinking is almost completely unique and even when you disagree with him you have to really think about why you disagree with him. I hope this series and the rest of his works survive the great filter into the future where works of utility to mankind end up.Can't recommend it enough.

I previously owned the whole set in hardcover, minus Antifragile, and they don't match at all, in color or size, which could almost be seen as clever... But this set is gorgeous. The Bed of Procedures is such a tiny book, having it in the matching cloth-bound black is worth it. Decent philosophy ages very well, and this set is made to last.I hope my son reads these when he grows up, and becomes overconfident.

Os livros são ótimos, mas o box é horrível, super apertado!

Perfetto

Es lo que esperaba pero es un poco caro