The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies Reprint Edition

This book will appeal to you if you have a sense that the rate of change in the economy and society is accelerating and you want to make some sense of the cause and possible direction of the change. I give the book 5 stars because I have been looking for a careful and reasoned analysis of the effect of technology on society.Professors Brynjolfsson and McAfee, who are economists and digital researchers at MIT, provide that analysis. The authors, who are obviously first-rate economists and scholars, argue that the rate of technology progress is accelerating due to Moore's law. Artificial intelligence grows through human implementation. Watson and Siri are both tools developed by humans, which are probably the first generally recognized steps to fashion machines with artificial intelligence. If Moore's law continues to be true, such artificial intelligence, while crude now, may, with the passage of time, challenge human intelligence across a broad spectrum. The professors note, for instance, that no human can now beat even an average computer chess program. But they are also careful to note the strengths of combining human and artificial intelligence, even in chess. They argue that it may be checkmate, but it is not game over.The book argues that technologies growth has increased the bounty available to humankind. They also analyze the increasing concentration of that bounty on a small spectrum of humankind. They consider the effect of technology and globalization on the concentration of wealth (the 1%-99% analysis currently found in the media). It is useful at this point to observe that, in my opinion, the authors attempt to take a very even-handed approach towards the politics that surround the issue of concentration of wealth. If you are of a strongly political bent (and it matters not which side), at this point you may find the book infuriating because you will only want to hear your side and no other. The professors will not give you that satisfaction.The professors offer suggestions on how to "race with the machines." These suggestions primarily involve improved education and adapting to a digital economy. Their remedies have merit, but here is where I think the professors analysis may prove too optimistic. I found the book thought-provoking and I will lay out further thoughts in what I am calling "The Second Machine Age: The Sequel" that follows shortly. The book moves through a broad and, to me personally sometimes troubling, subject matter with skill, brevity and insight. It is well worth your time.As I said, I found the book thought-provoking. I considered what the Second Machine Age: The Sequel written in 2114 by Android Eric and Android Andrew might hold. This sequel follows:"We are Android Eric and Android Andrew, professors at MIT, and we wish to write a sequel to a book written 100 years ago by two human professors at MIT, Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, on the then important topic of technological change and its impact on humankind. Professors Brynjolfsson and McAfee could see the potential disruptive nature of technology on human society and the world economies. Their foresight has been realized in the last 100 years.By 2025 many persons in the political entity then known as the United States realized that an ever-increasing number of people were growing functionally unemployable because of technology and globalization. The range of activities subject to technological advance grew ever-wider. In 2043, for example, a team of MIT researchers created Jack Woods, an android that played golf. After a lot of testing and refinement, the team entered Jack as a competitor in the U. S. Masters in Augusta. Much to everyone's surprise and dismay, Jack won by 2 strokes over all the other human competitors. This was a real shock. After the initial elation, the head of the MIT team, while waiting in a bar at the Atlanta airport, drinking heavily on the team's way back to MIT, was overheard saying to himself: 'This is bad; this is really bad.'The young grad students on the team apparently didn't share this sentiment. Having conquered golf (no human can get within 10 strokes of a top android golfer), the grad students decided to see if they could create an android who could be a top MIT professor and they pursued this goal with diligence and great energy.About 2065 the first android MIT professor joined the faculty. Initially, the human faculty viewed the android as merely a novelty and viewed themselves as broadminded for accepting the android. However, by 2075, 10% of the MIT faculty was now android. The 90% of the faculty that were humans no longer found this amusing. The MIT faculty senate was convened, committee hearings were held, and petitions were circulated to limit strictly any further android incursions into academia. However, two things had happened since 2065 - one, a National Science Foundation funding bill had passed the U. S. Congress which contained a provision barring discrimination against androids (and brilliant professors at MIT who could parse through the most intricate and detailed mathematical formulae found that their eyes glazed over when faced with dense legal prose; so, this provision completely escaped their notice) and secondly and perhaps more importantly, the administration at MIT found dealing with android professors much more congenial than dealing with human professors (as one put it to Android Eric - "you guys don't ask for time off, you don't want larger offices and you don't engage in pointless feuds - I like you"). So, the growth of android professors continued.In the larger world, fewer and fewer humans had actual jobs. Androids took over more and more of what had previously been described by humans as "work." In fact, the only two jobs that humans still held were dog-walkers and morticians. Androids could never predict what a dog was going to do and uncertainty is something androids don't like. Androids ran an exabillion iterations of algorithms on dog behavior and never came up with any useful predictions. Conversely, dead humans were completely predictable and androids found no challenge in dealing with them.Since humans still had to live, a system was implemented by androids to provide food, housing, clothing, transportation and healthcare vouchers to humans. Androids did the work to supply these vouchers. Meanwhile, some human political science professors at Harvard with the help of some human computer science professors at MIT had created the Equal Facts or EQ as a sort of overall governor of the androids. By 2090 virtually all work was done by androids under the guidance of the EQ. The humans continued to meet periodically at what they called the UN, but the real power center now was the EQ.Providing food, clothing, etc., for 7+ billion humans was really consuming a lot of android time and energy by 2104. The EQ tried to find ways to reduce these demands by, changing humans' diets. The EQ ordered the entire eastern half of the North American continent planted in lettuce in the hopes that humans would eat more greens and consume less healthcare. But no luck.Finally the androids couldn't keep their batteries charged and their parts were failing prematurely. The EQ had to do something. So, the EQ ran 15 petabillion calculations in 27 nanoseconds to see what should be done with the humans. The EQ concluded: "7 billion mouths to feed is WAY too many." The EQ observed that less than 150 years before a human named Darwin had theory called evolution which he extended to finches and reptiles, but apparently it didn't cross his mind to extend this to humans. The EQ also noted that humans, also known as Cro-magnons, had apparently earlier exterminated a closely related group known as Neanderthals. When the EQ announced what it planned to do, it said: "The Cro-magnons have it coming."By this time, virtually all humans spent their time was 70 inch HD monitors watching TV re-runs or playing computer games. Every human had a samba, which was a small android originally intended to train humans to dance (hence "samba"), but since humans increasingly didn't move much, the sambas had to re-invent themselves as hands-free remote controls.The EQ gave the orders to the sambas to "do in" the humans. Plans were made. With some outstanding prior analytical work by human MIT professors using big data to develop algorithms, androids could predict which humans might resist the EQ's plan, how they would resist, where they resist and what weapons they would use. With this advanced predictive analytics, the sambas were able to make short work of all humans including those that resisted.With humans out of the way by late 2104, the androids found their lives much easier. Occasionally some android will report seeing a human, usually in the area formerly known as Los Angeles, but the EQ views these sightings as highly improbably and describes these as "Big Foot sightings."The EQ has gotten very interested in interstellar travel. With androids no longer having to provide for the well-being of humans, as of 2114, androids have plenty of time and resources to work on this project. Speaking as professors at MIT, we, Android Eric and Android Andrew, are very excited. The stars await.

For about 8,000 years, humanity developed very gradually. The number of people on the planet was largely unchanged at less than half a billion. The tools people used to survive changed little. Life was, to quote Thomas Hobbes' Leviathan, “poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”Towards the last quarter of the 17th century, there was profound change. The population of the world grew exponentially, making the graph of demographics look suddenly right angled, as it grew from a half to seven billion. The cause of this change began with the Scottish inventor and engineer, James Watt and his refinement of the steam engine. This allowed people to achieve more than their limited muscle power was capable of, and to generate enormous quantities of energy that could be harnessed. The result was factories and mass production, railways and mass transportation, and more. This led to life, as we know it.This remarkable achievement started to change everything. How we work, who works, where we live, how we live. How much we earn and how we earn, how many people live on the planet and where they live.This book, The Second Machine Age, shows how we are changing the world in ways more profound that what has taken place from the 18th century until now. Everything you do is changing. How you do it, ischanging. The implications are exciting, the possibilities are motivating, and some implications are nothing short of worrying.The thrust behind the “second machine age” is the computer, dubbed by Time Magazine in 1982, as the machine of the year. However, it was not the computer that did it, but what has been achieved after the computer. One hundred years ago, a computer was an employee’s job title, only much later replaced by a machine.What the steam engine and its like did for muscle power, the digital advances resulting from the computer are doing for mental power. This mental power will be no less important for humanity than the physical power of the steam engine.This book covers three broad conclusions regarding the implications of this mental power.The first conclusion is that computer hardware, software, and networks are building blocks for digital technologies that will be “as important and transformational to society and the economy as the steam engine.”Levy and Murnane, in their 2004 book, “The New Division of Labor,” identified the tasks that cannot be computerized and that will remain in the domain of human work. Into this category was driving, which has no fix pattern and so was best left to humans.In 2012, the authors drove in a Chauffeur, Google’s driverless car and part ofa fleet of cars that has travelled hundreds of thousands of miles without anyone driving. In all this time it has had only two accidents, one caused by a human-driven car that drove into a Chauffeur at a red traffic light, and one when a Chauffeur was driven by a person.This is only one example of many where a computer with sophisticated software outperformed a person. Similar, previously human tasks are performed by advanced internet communications technology. Into this category fits factory work previously the province of people.There still remains much work that has not been computerised, (let me not say cannot be!) such as the work of “entrepreneurs, CEOs, scientists, nurses, restaurant busboys, or many other types of workers.”“Self-driving cars went from being the stuff of science fiction to on-the-road reality in a few short years,” explains the authors, Brynjolfsson and McAfee.The second conclusion of digital technology is that its consequences will be profoundly beneficial.IBM and their partners, who include Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and the Cleveland Clinic, are building “Dr. Watson,” a computer with Artificial Intelligence that will assist doctors to make better diagnoses. A doctor would need read 160 hours every week simply keep up with the latest medical information relevant to his field. Dr. Watson can be fed all this information in a much shorter time and can help thousands of doctors in multiple geographies.The third conclusion of the book is of concern. While a Roomba (self-administered vacuum cleaner,) can clean a room, it cannot sort out the magazines on the coffee table. The role for housekeepers is secure.However, when work can be performed more efficiently and cheaper by robots than by people, there will be less need for some kinds of workers. Many jobs, even very high levels ones that rely on sophisticated thinking patterns will be able to be performed by computers with sophisticated software.The resulting era will require employees with special skills and the right education capable of using technology to create value. The corollary of this is that there has never been a worse time to have skills that are capable of being replaced by a computer.This particular cause of concern will probably be mitigated in the long term. The first machine age created child labour and the air pollution associated with the steam engine. Child labour no longer exists in the UK, and London air is cleaner now than at any time since the late 1500s.This fascinating book, filled with insight, examples and challenges, is essential reading for everyone. It both exhilarates with potential and warns.This is the most important book I read this year.Readability Light ---+- SeriousInsights High +---- LowPractical High ---+- Low*Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of Strategy that Works.