The New Rules of War: Victory in the Age of Durable Disorder

This book is an excellent read on how warfare has changed and evolved from World War 2 to what we are faced with today. The author gives excellent historical and present examples and provides very good fact based info. A must read for anyone interested in war and global politics!

Sean McFate was a soldier in the U.S. Army and later a private military contractor (a.k.a. mercenary). He is now a professor of military strategy at Georgetown University. McFate is an iconoclast and his opinions are often provocative and controversial. The book is fun to read and an unlikely page-turner. He explains why America has stopped winning wars.McFate claims that the U.S. has not won a war since WW2 and argues that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were lost. McFate believes the military suffers from “strategic incompetence.” This is an inability to understand its opponents and adapt their strategy accordingly. McFate believes that the Pentagon is geared to fight WW2 style battles, using better technology. That was also a criticism of the generals in Vietnam. They were mostly WW2 vets and struggled to get to grips with the guerilla warfare employed by the Vietnamese. America's modern enemies refuse to stand and fight as the Germans did in 1944.McFate argues that “conventional war is dead.” Battlefield victory is obsolete, yet America still invests trillions of dollars in aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and killer robots—and ponders why no one is deterred or defeated. McFate does not have much faith in technology. He believes that much of the military budget is wasted on kit that will never be used in combat.McFate complains about the Pentagon’s love of carriers. “The U.S. navy is ordering nine more such ships, even though carrier warfare hit its climax in 1942, at Midway.” They cost $13 billion dollars a pop and have played little part in America’s recent wars. The F-35 fighter is another bugbear. The plane has cost $1.5 trillion to develop and has never been used in combat. Each one costs about $120 million, twice the price of a Boeing 737-600 airliner. An hour in the air costs $42,000. McFate believes that the F-35 is “worthless in future wars.” He maintains that it is not even a good combat aircraft.McFate claims the world is in a state of “durable disorder.” He predicts the ongoing demise of the Westphalian nation-state. He tells us that 70% of countries can be described as fragile and we are returning to an earlier time before the West became all-powerful and could impose its will on the rest of the world. He claims that much of the world is experiencing disorder and instability. This is a trend that cannot be reversed and will only get worse. He argues that we in the West are unprepared for the wars of the future and are facing existential threats. He argues that warfare is changing but we refuse to recognize this new reality. The U.S. buys, trains, deploys and fights according to rules that don't apply anymore. He argues that we should recognize what is going wrong and adapt.America’s enemies currently include China, Iran, Russia, as well as terrorist organizations, and drug cartels. Our adversaries realize they cannot win WW2 style battles so they avoid them. Durable disorder does not result in war as we like to fight it. ISIS grabbed 81,000 square miles of territory across several countries. In Crimea, Russia used covert means including special forces, proxy militias, and mercenaries—all while waging a disinformation campaign. By the time the West had worked out what was going on Russia had grabbed Crimea. McFate complains that NATO is still training to fight a gigantic tank battle with the Soviets at the Fulda Gap on the Rhine, even though the Cold War has ended. War has moved on, and our enemies have moved on with it.McFate argues that America is at war with China only it doesn't know it. Beijing goes right up to the edge of war in the South China Sea and then pulls back. It is slowly pushing the U.S. out of the region without firing a shot. It has bought much of Hollywood, making it difficult to cast China as a villain in movies. China is using our soft power against us. McFate argues that we need to develop a better strategy to deal with China. Instead of buying more aircraft carriers we should start reading Sun Tzu and learn to fight in a more devious way. He argues that "The West’s squeamishness about using strategic subversion only helps its enemies.” He suggests that we should consider distracting Beijing by facilitating popular uprisings in China, maybe that is already happening in Hong Kong.McFate believes that future wars will be waged by special forces and mercenary armies, which, are more cost-effective than standing national armies. The U.S. has failed to build and train effective national armies in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. They were taught to fight the American way and struggled to fight on their own. McFate argues for the continued expansion of special forces. The total annual cost of America's special forces is the price of one aircraft carrier. He argues this represents much better value for money.Mercenaries have made a comeback. More than half of all military personnel in the recent Iraq and Afghan wars were employed by contractors, and such “outsourcing” will grow. It is becoming tougher to recruit soldiers to fight in these places, and contractors are cheaper. The public is also less concerned if they end up in body bags. Mercenaries have traditionally been unpopular because they have no political loyalties and fight for money. Having been a mercenary in Africa, McFate does not see that as a problem: “patriotism is unimportant, and sometimes a liability.” He predicts that more countries, the super-rich, and corporations will hire mercenaries in the future. They are usually well trained and experienced soldiers. Nigeria used mercenaries to fight the Islamist group Boko Harum. The U.N. doesn't like mercenaries, they would rather hire expensive and poorly trained peacekeepers. McFate does not have much respect for the U.N. or its peacekeeping troops. He mentions that in Syria, 500 soldiers of the Russian owned Wagner Group more than held their own fighting against the cream of the U.S.'s special forces. He speculates what a large army of mercenaries could do.McFate also recommends establishing an “American Foreign Legion.” This would be similar to the French version and would be composed of foreigners recruited globally and led by U.S. officers. It could then be deployed in parts of the world that are falling apart and where we don’t want to send American born troops.Some of what McFate describes sounds familiar to anyone familiar with the British Empire’s military history. Britain ruled a quarter of the world's population and was often flexible about how it got the job done. The British were usually fighting insurgents in their colonies and rarely fought large scale battles. The British East India Company was the world’s first multinational company and it was once listed on the London Stock Exchange. It had its own army which it used to conquer India. At its peak, it had 150,000 soldiers in its employ and 122 ships. In the 16th century, Sir Francis Drake was called a privateer. He owned his own ships, raided Spanish shipping, and paid a percentage of any loot captured to the Queen. The British hired Germans to fight in the Revolutionary War and they still employ mercenaries. Their Gurkha regiments from Nepal were initially recruited 200 years ago and are still fighting for Britain.McFate believes in a world of increasing instability, victory belongs to the cunning and not the strong. We need to curb our obsession with hi-tech military equipment and start out-thinking our enemies.

Enjoyed the read, very informative from our current situation to a military history context.Only reason why I didn't give it 5 stars, is because the author has recently written an Op Ed in WSJ, and in it states, "If Mr. Putin’s mercenaries do something worthy of disapproval, he can simply disavow them, as he did after the Wagner Group got shellacked by U.S. troops at the Battle of Kasham in 2018 in eastern Syria."Yet in this book he states that our forces weren't able to take out the Wagner Group in this same battle -- so which is it? The lack of uniformity in this certain situation somewhat bothered me, but besides that I'd recommend the read.

Recommended reading for the history buff, or those who have gone to a war college …place this book in your personal library next to Sun Tzu and Clausewitz

Sean McFate served in the 82nd Airborne, served as a mercenary, and later secured a Ph.D from the London School of Economics, an unusual combination of achievements. He is a Professor of Strategy at the National Defense University. I got the hardback which has 251 pages excluding the Annex, Notes and Acknowledgments. The author writes well, takes a historical view of the subject and doesn't shrink from hard judgements.The Westphalian Order was established in 1648 in Europe by the Treaty of Westphalia and it's major effect was to reserve the right to field armies to states. Prior mercenary armies raised and fielded by lesser economic and political bodies were banned. With the expansion of European influence over the globe, the Westphalian Order became for the West the normal order of warfare (the author notes that we have to ignore the British East India Company to make this statement, but nonetheless, in the West, this became model through which it looked at warfare).This model reached its apogee in World War 2. The book reviews the sorry history of the Westphalian Order since 1945 and concludes, correctly in my judgement, that change of the West's view of warfare is essential if we are to fight and win in the future. To do so, we must abandon the concept that war is only a state on state act. To do this takes us back to a world in which many actors fought for power and treasure. The most surprising aspect of the book to me was the author's discussion of the rise of mercenaries as recognized warfighters in many conflicts, including mercenaries who fought for U.S. interests. If you think that Blackwater is the only entity providing these services, this book will expose you to many others. According to the book, one Mideast group hired about 1500 mercenaries from South America who had honed their skills in the drug cartel battles (wars?) in South America. This group brought tactics and fighting skills to the Mideast, which had not previously been seen.What is "war"? On page 179, the book poses this question: "The only think experts agree on is this: to be considred "war," an armed conflict must be fought for purely political aims, which is why narco-wars don't count. ..."The use of force to curb criminal behavior such as piracy is not war," writes one expert, "because pirates seek material gains rather than political aims." This is the considered opinion of generals, scholars, and dictionaries. And it is wrong." Pg. 179. The author is not afraid to take a strong stand.The book is well-written, takes a long historical view, and provides a careful critique of the United States' approach to war. He argues that disorder is increasingly durable. New players in conflict arise who are like the players that existed before the Westphalian Order arose. What if large international corporations hired large mercenary forces to advance their economic interests as did the British East India Company?Our strategic views have caused the U.S. to lose in the struggle against disorder and will continue to cause us to lose unless we change. If this topic is of interest to you, I most strongly encourage you to read the book.

Livro muito bom

Great read. The book brings some very insightful points of view about how war has changed since WWII.

I recently read the book "The New Rules of War: How America Can Win--Against Russia, China, and Other Threats" by Sean McFate and it was an eye-opening experience. The book is packed with great insights and thought-provoking ideas on modern warfare. The writing is clear and concise and the book is filled with actionable insights that can help shape our understanding of modern warfare. Highly recommend this book to anyone interested in military strategy and international affairs.

Written with contemporary geopolitical examples for better comprehension & understanding the current situation. The book is must read for all scholars interested in peace & prosperity of world

Ottimo libro, mi è piaciuto molto. Sean McFate scrive molto bene, ha le idee chiare e sa come comunicarle. Unico punto debole, a mio avviso, è la tesi dell'autore secondo cui gli Stati Uniti e l'Occidente sarebbero strategicamente svantaggiati nel mondo attuale, caratterizzato da "disordine durevole", aziende militari private, gruppi armati non statali e un campo di azione caratterizzato da operazioni nell'ombra - perché troppo ancorato a un assetto strategico convenzionale, di grande guerra fra stati nazione. Si e no direi - per decine di anni dopo la fine della seconda guerra mondiale, gli Stati Uniti e i suoi alleati si sono dedicati con passione a operazioni nell'ombra, incluso fomentare rivoluzioni popolari, cambi di regime, crescita e soppressione di insurrezioni armate - ed altro. Il punto dolente, credo, è che altre potenze hanno imparato le stesse arti e dimostrano di sapere giocare nello stesso campo - vedi il crescente peso dell'Iran in Medio Oriente, l'estensione egemonica della Russia nei territori confinanti (sempre negabile ufficialmente), e la cosiddetta influenza russa nelle elezioni americane o nel referendum Brexit. Una gran bella lettura comunque.